July 26, 2017 Source: Jibang New Energy Network

On July 19th, “Photovoltaic Industry Development Review for the First Half of 2017 and Formal Outlook Seminar for the Second Half of the Year” was held in Beijing. Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, gave a report titled "Photovoltaic Industry Development Review for the First Half of 2017 and Situation Outlook for the Second Half of the Year". The report shows that in the first half of 2017, China's new PV installed capacity was 24.4GW, and the scale growth rate was fast. "The level of industrialization technology is "high", the production capacity is "excellent", and the application market is "live".

This article is based on the speeches from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Finance, the State Grid Energy Research Institute, the Institute of Electrical Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Electric Power Planning and Design Institute, and the Chamber of Electrical and Mechanical Import and Export, to sort out the eight characteristics of photovoltaic development in the first half of 2017. To the reader.

First, the distributed outbreak of the first year

As of June 30, 2017, the installed capacity of PV power plants in China has reached a new high, with a cumulative installed capacity of 100 million kilowatts. In the first half of the year, the installed capacity was 24 million kilowatts, of which more than 7 million kilowatts were distributed, an increase of 7 over the same period last year. Times around. Relevant persons of the National Energy Administration predict that the distributed annual output will exceed 10 million kilowatts. 2017 is the first year of the distributed photovoltaic explosion in the true sense of the population. It will launch the “Distributed Photovoltaic Trading Pilot” and convert the electricity to the dividend. Reduce subsidy needs.

Second, the problem of abandoned light has improved

In the case that the installed capacity of photovoltaics has only increased, there has been a welcome change in the Chinese PV industry. The light-reducing rate dropped from 12% to 7%. Xinjiang and Gansu abandoned the light-hit areas. Compared with 32.4% and 32.1% in the same period of last year, they fell by more than 10 percentage points respectively, while Qinghai and Ningxia fell below 10%.

A person from the National Energy Administration said that this benefited from three reasons. First, the impact of power supply and demand, the electricity consumption rate in the first half of the year increased by 4%, which is the most important reason. Second, good policy guidance, the issue of abandoning light is written into government reports, and problem solving is promoted at the national level. The third is technological progress, such as the implementation of thermal power flexibility transformation, so that conventional energy sources become spares, and the original part of the space is moved to new energy. In the future, the light rejection rate and related calculation problems will be improved.

Third, technological progress continues to break records

The technological progress of the photovoltaic industry has accelerated and the world record has been continuously promoted. Japan's HBC battery reached 26.3%; Germany's Topcon technology developed N-type polycrystalline battery conversion efficiency of 21.9%; Trina Solar 6-inch full-back electrode solar cell (IBC) efficiency reached 24.13%; Stanford research group perovskite-silicon The conversion efficiency of the base laminate battery reached 23.6%.

At the same time, China's advanced technology industrialization has accelerated. According to Wang Bohua's report, black silicon technology and PERC technology have become the mainstream of current battery chip technology reform; major enterprises have accelerated the deployment of N-type batteries; HIT batteries have accelerated industrialization; component automation and intelligent transformation are also accelerating. Overall, domestic enterprises' R&D investment ratio is lower than the global leading level, and there is little difference between them.

Fourth, explore the introduction of the green card mechanism

Since July 1st, the China Green Certificate Resource Purchase Website has been officially launched. It is expected that the green power quota system assessment and the green certificate mandatory transaction will be initiated in 2018.

Some experts said that now is the voluntary subscription stage, the effect of the green card is still limited. If mandatory quotas are implemented in 2018, it will greatly accelerate the pace of China's energy transformation and will be able to raise enough funds to support the development of renewable energy. The “Green Certificate System + Mandatory Quota” will effectively solve the problem of insufficient subsidy funds and subsidy arrears, and will effectively expand the RE market share and promote energy transformation.

Fifth, let the "leaders" really lead

On July 21, the three ministries jointly released the 2017 latest photovoltaic leader technical standards. Under the background of decentralization and decentralization, the localities will be more free to allocate resources. Prefer the choice of solar energy resources, the best access conditions, the lowest cost of land, the government supporting policies and services in the best areas to build a photovoltaic leader base, to minimize the non-technical costs of enterprise development, thereby reducing subsidy demand, allowing the market Mechanisms and PV subsidies work better.

In the past, the price of the leader's base was significantly lower, but the individual leader's project did not meet expectations. The next step will be to study the overseas PV price competition mechanism. At the same time, HIT, IBC and other super-leaders will be launched to push forward industrial technology advancement with leading technology applications.

6. Reduce the scale of discretion

According to available data, it is possible that the “13th Five-Year Plan” for photovoltaics will be completed this year. In the past few years, due to various factors such as indicators and price cuts, “6 ̇ 30” has been rushed. In the next three years, the new PV scale should be controlled at around 45GW, and the annual installed capacity is about 15GW.

In the next step, the National Energy Administration will strictly follow the PV development indicators in the “13th Five-Year Plan” reported by the provinces, strictly control and plan the issuance of future indicators, decompose them into the year and provinces, and refer to the wind power early warning mechanism to install PVs in the provinces. The volume will be publicized, and early warning of PV investment in hot spots will be given, so that each market entity has clear expectations.

Seventh, strengthen the construction of the standard system

The construction of the photovoltaic standard system will be strengthened, and the agricultural photovoltaic and resident distributed standards will be prioritized. The focus of agricultural photovoltaics is on land use. In the past, the uneven measurement of land use for photovoltaic agriculture led to multiple problems, and the relevant departments will be coordinated to regulate land use, so that photovoltaic agriculture projects can be relied upon.

The household market broke out, but the household PV products, installation, and grid-connected standards are missing, and the development is mixed. The National Energy Administration will start the construction of household standards as soon as possible to guide the regulation of the household market.

Eight, foreign markets are changing

In the first half of the year, the United States launched the 201 investigation. The EU appeared “price commitment” and “floor price”. The final result of the Turkish PV anti-dumping ruling was unfavorable. The Korean polysilicon double trial was in progress and the PV export market was changing rapidly. These trade barriers are aimed at not only mainland China, but also overseas factories such as Malaysia and Thailand.

According to the data given by Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysts, the major foreign markets have the following characteristics: India's rapid growth and price sensitivity, most projects will be released by competitive bidding; the US installed capacity will decline in the year, and the future installed capacity will enter a short-term trough; Europe; Europe will maintain a certain increase; different factors in Southeast Asia will cause growth to be blocked; Latin America is about to usher in a market outbreak; more projects will be tendered in Africa and the Middle East.

Conclusion: Self-confidence, innovation and development

As a strategic emerging industry, photovoltaic is an important direction of global energy transformation. The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period will be the most difficult period for PV development, and the subsidy deficit is very serious. Participants believe that the photovoltaic industry must strengthen its confidence and make innovation and development a top priority.

At present, the homogenization of the photovoltaic industry is serious, not only in the upstream technology type, but also in the core technology of crystalline silicon. It is also reflected in the diversification of downstream applications, but the business model is single, and the industry model and business model that can really reduce subsidies are not many.

In the future, the two major directions of PV development are: reducing the cost of photovoltaics through technological advancement and systematic thinking, and second, making a dividend from the reform of the power system. As energy coupling continues to deepen, PV will be better integrated into the power system to serve the electricity market. Let the photovoltaic industry develop itself under the guidance of correct values.