August 17, 2017 Source: Zhongcai.com

Recently, the "Intensive Report on Photovoltaic/New Energy Industry" was released, and the report summary shows:

(1) Domestic polysilicon production capacity increased, and import substitution accelerated: at the end of 2016, global polysilicon production capacity was approximately 437,000 tons; overseas production capacity was approximately 227,000 tons, and domestic production capacity was approximately 210,000 tons. In 2016, the global production was about 370,000 tons, and the overall capacity utilization rate was about 85%. However, domestic leading enterprises basically maintained full production. Domestic silicon production accounts for just over 50% of the world's total. In the next 2-3 years, domestic silicon production capacity will continue to increase, gradually replacing overseas high-cost production capacity.

(2) The emerging leading cost advantage is significant, and the market share is expected to increase rapidly: Zhongneng, OCI, Wacker, several traditional giants have huge production capacity, but the cost is inferior and the future competitiveness is worrying. After years of accumulation, the domestic up-and-coming talents Xinte, Yongxiang and Daquan have basically caught up with the traditional giants, and the initial investment and technological transformation costs of the subsequent construction capacity are far lower than the traditional leaders. The current general cost is 60,000. Below the yuan per ton, the market share is expected to increase rapidly.

(3) The silicon material enterprises that bind the monocrystalline silicon wafer faucet are the first to benefit: the single crystal has high requirements for the quality of the silicon material, and the silicon material currently used by the domestic monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers is mainly imported overseas, and only the new special and permanent in China. Xiangxiang, Daquan, Zhongneng, etc. have capacity to meet the requirements. The silicon material manufacturers that have obtained the participation of the monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers can fully explain the customer's recognition of the quality of the silicon material. With the continuous expansion of single crystal enterprises, domestic high-quality silicon material manufacturers are expected to open the replacement of overseas monocrystalline silicon materials.

(4) Electricity price is not the only factor determining cost. Fine management and comprehensive technical ability win: polysilicon cost includes energy power, raw materials, labor, and depreciation. Electricity price is not the decisive criterion for cost determination. Xinjiang is the best new production capacity. One of the locations, but not the only one.

The polysilicon project is based on refined management and comprehensive technical capabilities. The emerging manufacturer Yongxiang is the best example.

(5) Short-term and medium-term polysilicon prices are determined by the marginal supply of high-cost manufacturers. Emerging manufacturers continue to have high profits: the demand for polysilicon industry is gradually increasing. Domestic emerging cost leaders will gradually erode the share of domestic and overseas high-cost manufacturers, while polysilicon prices are determined by marginal supply. Low-cost manufacturers enjoy higher profits, that is, high-cost manufacturers are the price standards until they are completely replaced. In the medium term, emerging companies such as Yongxiang, Xinte and Daquan will continue to maintain high profitability.

(6) In the long run, the silicon material will eventually be oligopolistic and enjoy excess profits: high initial investment and high-tech barriers will determine the high concentration of the silicon material industry. In the future, it is expected to form several oligopoly situations of leading technology and cost companies in China. Excess profit. From the current to the final parity online process, the domestic polysilicon technology leading company with well-capacity investment has continued to grow and continue to grow. At the same time, who can understand the appropriate proportion of domestic single crystal polycrystals, and deeply bind domestic mainstream wafer customers. , its performance will be better.

(7) Risk warning: Polysilicon prices fell more than expected; corporate production costs fell less than expected.