Source: New Energy Investment and Financing Circle

Foreword

As a capital-intensive industry, new energy projects require a large amount of funds. Due to the difficulty in obtaining economic benefits in the short term, commercial financial institutions have little interest in investment, resulting in a lack of preferential long-term loan funds for the new energy industry. In this regard, industry experts believe that the "financial leasing + Internet" market has a lot of room for development, this policy will certainly drive the rapid development of new energy, thereby accelerating the restructuring of the industry and promoting enterprises to become bigger and stronger. At the same time, as a sunrise industry in China, financial leasing will maintain rapid growth in the next few years. With the help of “Internet +” as a springboard, the future will still have broad market prospects.

First, the reasons for optimistic about the photovoltaic industry

The first is a higher level of return on assets.

As the price of equipment decreases, this level of yield continues to increase, provided that the subsidy costs remain the same.

The second is a stable long-term cash flow.

Now, when the PV power plant receives the approval from the National Development and Reform Commission, it can enjoy the income from the locked-in price, and how much the country will receive within 20 years. After 20 years, there are still five years of opportunities to access the Internet at the local benchmark price. I am afraid that we can do the lease for less than 20 years. A power station will be replaced by other costs in 3 years and 5 years, so this asset can be repeated many times. There is a better point here. Now the bank is not particularly aware of the assets of the power station. The personal experience is that when large funds and bank funds pay attention to this market, there is a very stable flow of funds to observe it. If we shift our focus downwards, The space is squeezed out and it is too early to do.

The third is a larger market space.

This is relative to hydropower and nuclear power. China's water resources development is almost the same, and the rate of continued development of yields will fall, and the growth space is basically close to the ceiling level. Nuclear power actually encountered a black swan, which was affected after the Fukushima incident in Japan. Another Chinese nuclear power industry cycle is very long, conservative is three to five years, and longer is ten years.

The fourth is that the market for photovoltaics is quite good.

The state vigorously promotes distributed photovoltaics, with about 20 million yuan of funds. It can also carry out such financial leasing business, and should consider removing 30% of the tenant's own funds, and the distribution is relatively stable. If the users are good, the cash flow will be higher.

Second, what are the risks?

The first risk is the risk of a decline in the level of return on assets due to the abandonment of wind.

Now we have access to the grid, but the local power grid does not accept wind power, in fact, it is a problem of local administrative control, they are willing to receive local wind power. The state has attached great importance to it, especially for wind power. The Energy Bureau has stated that this mode of operation is during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. If the local limited electricity does not give you wind power, you can give wind power if there is no power cut.

The second risk is the quality risk of the power station.

If you are a new power station, you may want to look at the local wind control resources, the quality of the equipment and the professionalism of the construction side. If it is already connected to the grid, it is better. You can look at the quality of the power station by looking at the electricity bills.

The third risk, the problem of subsidy delay.

Through the past bills, you can get an idea of the local subsidy delay.

Third, the status quo of photovoltaic

Supported by national policies, the installed capacity of new energy in China has increased rapidly in recent years. In 2016, China's new PV installations reached 34GW, accounting for 44% of the world's new installed capacity; the cumulative installed capacity reached 77GW, surpassing Germany to become the world's largest PV installed country. In the first half of 2017, driven by the “630” rushing factor, China's new PV installation capacity reached 24GW. We expect the new PV installation capacity to exceed 40GW.

The Energy Administration's recently issued “Guidelines on the Implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” will guide the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2017-2020. The ground-based centralized power station (including the front runner project) will maintain an average annual rate of 20-23GW. New installed capacity, distributed projects using a filing system, not subject to indicators. In addition, centralized power stations in seven provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) including Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin, as well as distributed photovoltaics, village-level poverty alleviation power stations, and inter-provincial trans-regional transmission channel supporting photovoltaic power plants are not planned. -23GW installed capacity. Seeing the situation of private capital raising funds and the government's pulling of the industry, both sides are working hard.

Fourth, the photovoltaic industry big data

According to statistics, listed companies have the top ten installed capacity. The five big four small power groups are not central enterprises or state-owned enterprises. They have very large financing capabilities and are very sensitive to funds.

V. About other emerging strategic industries

Energy conservation and environmental protection is a market of 10 trillion yuan. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the new energy industry will grow by more than 2 trillion yuan. In the same period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the country expects energy conservation and environmental protection to increase by more than 10 trillion yuan.

The emerging equipment industry will continue to improve in the future. They continue to raise funds in the form of private placements or through the sale of equity in the market. There are a lot of business opportunities for financing leases. Some traditional industries are going downhill, and we should pay more attention to such industries that are supported by national policies and have good cash income levels.

The energy Internet is also a trillion-level market. The energy Internet has five components, one is energy storage. The energy storage is mainly used for wind power plants and photovoltaic power generation. There is light during the day and no electricity can be generated at night without light. He can reserve the light and put the stored energy on the grid. Get a higher return. There is also UHV, as well as intelligent management, energy saving and emission reduction and big data mining.

In terms of energy conservation and environmental protection, the Minister of Environmental Protection said that during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, environmental protection investment increased to about 2 trillion yuan per year. This year's environmental investment is about 70 billion (not official data). According to reports, the future investment of 2 trillion yuan, this data can not really imagine, even if invested 200 billion is four or five times more than the current investment. However, this is a problem at the national strategic level, so there will be a very large room for development in the future.