December 05, 2017 Source: Sunshine Master

       In the overall trend of the photovoltaic industry, the industry is generally more optimistic, that in the global PV market decentralization, the industry's ups and downs caused by a national policy change has ceased to exist. However, it is necessary to maintain a clear-cut, unstoppable heat and trigger a new round of overcapacity.

       The output of silicon wafers is 62GW, which is more than 40% year-on-year. It is expected to reach 80GW for the whole year; the output of solar cells is 51GW, up 50%, and will reach 80GW for the whole year; the output of modules will be 53GW, an increase of about 43%... The first three quarters of this year, the number of photovoltaic manufacturing The core data shows that China's photovoltaic industry has a clear trend of recovery and is entering a new round of development. Recently, in the 7th Forum on Strengthening the Application of the “One Belt, One Road” Distributed Energy Innovation and Development Forum in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in Nanjing, many experts and scholars and industry leaders said that photovoltaic enterprises should seize the favorable opportunity, increase technological progress, and accelerate the promotion. Distributed generation, beware of new overcapacity.

Leading the world in all aspects

"China's market PV module production has been the world's number one for 10 consecutive years, ranking first in the global PV new market for four consecutive years. In particular, the production of the four major segments of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and modules is the world's number one. More than half of the total.” Wang Bohua, secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that because of the three “Great Leap Forwards”, people were generally uneasy at the beginning of this year. After 10 months, the entire manufacturing industry has developed well.

Application growth is also very fast. China Photovoltaic Industry Association statistics, from January to October, the country's new installed capacity of more than 45GW, cumulative installed capacity of more than 122GW.

Another important reason for the fast-moving of the photovoltaic industry is the continuous decline in production costs. From 2012 to 2017, China's PV costs have dropped by about half, driving sales prices to fall rapidly. Since last year, inverter prices have fallen by 21%.

As a gathering place for photovoltaic industry, Jiangsu has more than 600 photovoltaic companies. Tang Xuewen, Director of the New Energy Division of the Provincial Energy Bureau, said that the 13th Five-Year Plan for photovoltaic power generation in our province is to ensure 8 million KW and strive for 10 million KW. The current installed capacity is 8.35 million KW, ensuring that the target has been completed.

Distributed power generation explosive growth

A few years ago, it was a concept of distributed generation, and now it has played a leading role in the field of photovoltaic new energy.

From January to October, China's new 45GW installed capacity exceeded 16GW, an increase of more than 300% year-on-year, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 26GW. Experts pointed out that this is a new change in China's PV application. While the market scale is growing rapidly, the market structure is also changing. In the past 90% or even more than 90% of the centralized power plants, distributed development was only about 10% in the same period last year. Nearly 40% of the installed machines gave distributed power generation, and the distributed ushered in the year of explosive growth.

The province's distributed generation is also the first in the country, currently accounting for one-third of the new installed capacity. GCL New Energy currently has 550MW connected to the province, accounting for 7% of the market. Sun Xingping, president of the company, said that under the guidance of the distributed development strategy, GCL new energy distribution projects have spread throughout the country, and the province has developed projects such as Zhangjiagang GCL Kowloon 39MW. He said, "As long as the distributed PV project controls the risk, compared with the ground commercial power station, the development cycle is short and the difficulty is small, which will be one of the main business models of the photovoltaic power generation industry."

Wuxi Suntech Yijia New Energy Co., Ltd. has already pushed the distributed photovoltaic model abroad. Zhang Linhai, deputy general manager of the company, introduced distributed projects in Germany, Belgium, the Czech Republic and Japan. Relying on the international leading roof distributed solution, it can not only generate electricity, but also connect with technologies and products such as charging piles, energy storage, and power heat pumps.

As one of the recently drafted distributed power generation market-oriented transaction documents, any of the directors of the Policy Development Research Office of the Institute of Energy and Internet Innovation of Tsinghua University is very optimistic about the future of distributed photovoltaics under the energy Internet. "This document stipulates new network fees. The general industry and commerce does not exceed 1 cent, and the large industry does not exceed 5 cents. This is a very important industry policy, indicating that distributed PV projects can make money, and many of them have not been developed in the past. The project can also be developed.” In his view, roofs, carports, industrial parks, highways, high-speed railways, bus stations, fish ponds, etc. are all distributed installed resources. Yancheng City 140 kV photovoltaic corridor demonstration project, built on the 80-meter long road, the top of the corridor is 15 meters wide, a total of 1200 square meters, installed capacity of 120W per square meter, reducing the cost of photovoltaic power generation, and does not occupy the land, The power generated can also be used directly at the charging station.

Beware of triggering a new round of overcapacity

In the overall trend of the photovoltaic industry, the industry is generally more optimistic, that in the global PV market decentralization, the industry's ups and downs caused by a national policy change has ceased to exist. However, it is necessary to maintain a clear-cut, unstoppable heat and trigger a new round of overcapacity.

In view of the fact that the current photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly and the scale of investment is large, Wang Bohua admits that there is a possibility of overcapacity, which is very worthy of vigilance. “There are already two or three enterprises with a planned production capacity of 20GW. All key enterprise plans are more than 10GW, and several add up to seven or eighty GW.” He said that there are already 90GW plans, and whether this capacity can be digested remains to be investigated. . Some areas have been overdrawn, and production capacity is not a real market. It is recommended to have a development plan and proceed as planned. At the same time, there must be a relatively sufficient technical reserve, and the sales should be carried out step by step according to the actual market, so as to avoid the imbalance of supply and demand of the staged capacity.

The international market demand is closely related to China's photovoltaic industry. Experts believe that the future of China's PV foreign trade situation is not optimistic. In addition to China, the United States and India rank second and third in the market. The United States implemented a trade protection policy and initiated a 201 investigation. By the end of October, more than 5 GW of PV products waiting for customs clearance at US Customs will affect the market next year. India is the first anti-dumping, and recently introduced the BSCRS compulsory certification. It is difficult for non-certified products to enter the Indian market from September 5 next year.

Many people in the industry are not worried about the increasing power generation of distributed power generation. Sun Yan Power Director Zhang Yanhu said that behind the high installed capacity is the product quality worthy of attention, especially the quality of suppliers. "Quality issues may hurt the reputation of the entire industry, and some have caused personal injury accidents due to technical defects."

Zhang Yong, general manager of Fengqi New Energy Technology, pointed out that safety is a circumstance of distributed power generation. In addition to the safety of power stations, it also involves housing safety. Once a house fires, how to quickly extinguish, how to quickly diagnose, protect and cut off hidden dangers must be prepared.

For operators, distributed generation is also at risk. Zhang Jing, vice president of GCL New Energy, said that the power station should be on the roof of industrial and commercial enterprises, enterprises and institutions for more than 20 years. If the building itself has legality and compliance problems, it will be troublesome. There are also technical risks. At present, most of China's stock steel structure plant construction does not consider increasing the photovoltaic system, which brings hidden dangers to the project implementation. There are also problems such as roof leakage and aging, which will affect project implementation and operation.