Source: China Energy News

       "There are things that are bitter and bitter, and people who know it. The road is in danger, and the person who knows it is." In 2017, China's photovoltaic industry ushered in the best development opportunity in the past ten years. The new installed capacity broke through the 50GW mark for the first time in five consecutive years. A new high, the "6·30" important node will not repeat the cliff-style decline situation, the year-round steady, ahead of the "13th Five-Year Plan" installation target. "Going out", reshaping the world's photovoltaic pattern, has become a well-deserved leader in the global photovoltaic industry, becoming the third "going out" new business card in China after high-speed rail and nuclear power. “Going up”, the 19th anniversary commemorative stamp appeared a photovoltaic shadow, which is the first important element of photovoltaic design as a stamp. “Going on”, PV accelerates “flying into the homes of ordinary people”, and the outbreak of household photovoltaic booms has brought photovoltaics to the user side, bringing clean energy and new roads to the people, and also increasing the confidence of some poor people in poverty alleviation. Enhanced life support. “Going back”, many Chinese leading PV companies listed in the US have intensively announced privatization in 2017, opting to compete for domestic capital markets and seeking A-share listing.

In 2017, China's PV subsidies continue to decline, and they are at the critical juncture of self-sustaining development. It seems that the prospects are smooth. However, under the catalysis of policies, markets and technologies, the competition for photovoltaic technology will be more intense in 2017, and the industry will be reshuffled and innovative. Becoming a top priority, companies that fail to achieve innovation and efficiency have all gone out.

Looking ahead to 2018, as energy coupling continues to deepen, PV will be better integrated into the power system.

1 Determine the scale and strictly control the discretion of each province

On July 27, 2017, the National Energy Administration officially issued the “Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development”, and planned the development scale of photovoltaic power plants from 2017 to 2020, with a total of 86.5GW in 4 years. Hair, the leader base is 8GW per year. At this point, the boots for PV construction scale and technical indicators have finally landed.

The National Energy Administration will strictly follow the PV development indicators in the 13th Five-Year Plan reported by the provinces, strictly control and plan the issuance of future indicators, decompose them into the year and provinces, and refer to the wind power early warning mechanism to publicize the installed capacity of photovoltaics in each province. Early warning of PV investment in hotspots will allow market participants to have clear expectations.

In the past few years, due to various factors such as indicators and price cuts, the photovoltaic industry frequently staged the “6·30” rush to install.

Different from previous years, the four-year index was issued together, providing direction and policy support for the rhythm and sustainable development of the domestic PV industry, which will adjust the PV “flat price” to the best state of attack, indicating that the country is promoting The confidence in the development of the photovoltaic industry is firm and strong.

2 years of abandoned light limit turning point

Benefiting from the continuous support of policies and the acceleration of UHV construction, in the case of increased PV installations, the phenomenon of abandoned light that has plagued the development of the new energy industry for many years has clearly improved.

In the first half of 2017, China's PV industry showed a promising change, and the light rejection rate dropped from 12% to around 7%. Among them, Xinjiang and Gansu abandoned the light-hit areas, which were down 10% compared with 32.4% and 32.1% in the same period of 2016, while Qinghai and Ningxia fell below 10%.

Overall, in the first three quarters of 2017, the light was alleviated, and local pressure was still facing. Some research institutions believe that 2017 is the year of turning the corner of the power cut.

Effectively alleviating the situation of abandoning water, abandoning wind and abandoning light is an important task laid out in the 2017 Government Work Report and is crucial to promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the renewable energy industry.

Thanks to the year-on-year growth in electricity consumption in the whole society, good policy guidance at the national level, and technological advancement, the issue of renewable energy consumption is still long and long, but at least it has already dawned.

3 "leading" while paying more attention to "long-distance running"

In July 2017, the “2017 latest photovoltaic front-runner technical standards” jointly issued by the three ministries emphasized that in the context of the decentralization of power, the localities are more free to allocate resources and minimize the non-technical costs of enterprise development. Play the role of the market.

In September 2017, the National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Promoting the Implementation of the “Leader of Photovoltaic Power Generation” Plan and the Construction of Leading Bases in 2017”, requiring that each phase of the pilot base be controlled at a scale of 8 million kilowatts, including the application of the leading base and The technology-led bases are no more than 6.5 million kilowatts and 1.5 million kilowatts respectively, and the “Leader” program is further expanded.

In order to ensure the stable release of new technology and advanced production capacity, the “Leading” base in 2017 will be divided into two bases for the first time: the conventional photovoltaic power generation technology base will account for more than 80%, and the frontier technology application base About 20% represents the most advanced technology in the field of photovoltaics.

Since the launch of the “Top Runner” program in 2015, not only has the efficiency of PV modules increased significantly, but the on-grid tariff has also dropped to 0.45 yuan - 0.61 yuan / kWh.

From the initial 1GW demonstration project to the scale of 5.5GW, and then to 8GW per year from 2017 to 2020, the strength of the national “top runner” project is evident.

The improvement of the “Lead Runner” project will accelerate the application and transformation of scientific and technological research and development results, and drive and lead the advancement of photovoltaic power generation technology and market applications.

The “Lead Runner” base is pushing the technological advancement of the photovoltaic industry with leading technology applications and taking on the role of “long-distance running”.

4 photovoltaic poverty alleviation is getting better

In February 2017, the National Energy Administration issued the “Guidelines for Energy Work in 2017”, which clarified that in 2017, the installed capacity of photovoltaics and light and heat will be 18GW, and the scale of photovoltaic poverty alleviation will be 8GW. The village-level poverty alleviation power station will be limited in size and vigorously promote PV poverty alleviation. During the year, it plans to arrange a photovoltaic poverty alleviation scale of 8 million kilowatts, benefiting 640,000 people who are building poverty-stricken households. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, PV poverty alleviation will cover 2 million poor households.

In 2015, PV poverty alleviation was officially included in the national top ten projects for poverty alleviation. In 2016, the first batch of PV poverty alleviation projects was announced. In 2017, with the help of the policy, PV poverty alleviation is getting better and better, and the development model is innovating, attracting a large number of investors. At the same time, the provinces have added new PV indicators to poverty alleviation, boosting industrial development, benefiting people's livelihood, and benefiting the poor. Wallet, beaming.

5 "Technical Rolling" era is coming

China's photovoltaic industry officially entered the era of “technical rolling” in 2017, and the industrialization process of advanced scientific research results has obviously accelerated, and breakthroughs have been made in polysilicon, silicon wafers, crystalline silicon cells, components, inverters and other products. Black silicon technology and PERC technology have become the mainstream of current battery technology enterprises; major enterprises have accelerated the deployment of N-type batteries; HIT batteries have accelerated industrialization; component automation and intelligent transformation are also accelerating.

The first domestic high-purity electronic grade polysilicon products were launched to achieve “Made in China”. The diamond wire cut polycrystalline has made a major breakthrough, and it is expected to bring profound changes to the polycrystalline technology route and even the crystal silicon camp. The battery efficiency of IBC components reached 24.13%, which has become a new milestone in the development of high-efficiency batteries.

High-efficiency single crystal PERC double-sided technology opens a new era, heterojunction technology will increase the power generation to 44%, the “X” series of the European Union will open a new era for the domestic PV market, distributed intelligent inverters, and realize distributed applications. Full coverage of the scene...

Throughout 2017, the technological innovation achievements of China's photovoltaic industry can be described as a hundred flowers and the advanced technology industrialization is also accelerating, but overall, the proportion of R&D investment by domestic enterprises is lower than the global leading level.

In 2018, the increase in demand for high-efficiency products will force technological progress to accelerate innovation and upgrading. The demand market will turn to high-efficiency products, which will be the trend of the times - technological innovation will break through again.

6 households use photovoltaic year, now "national photovoltaic" grand view

2017 is the first year of real-time household photovoltaics. It is the beginning of the year, from large-scale photovoltaic enterprises to small distributors, from the southeast coast to the northeastern land, showing the lively scene of “all-people photovoltaic”. In the first three quarters of 2017, distributed new installed capacity reached 15GW, an increase of about 400% year-on-year.

Various provinces have introduced various favorable policies, such as “million household roof photovoltaic project” in Zhejiang Province, “10,000 roofs” in Jiangxi Province, and “ten thousand roofs” in Shandong Province. The “Distributed PV Trading Pilot” will be launched in due course and will be converted to electricity.

Household photovoltaics have triggered various companies and various capitals to rush in and seize the opportunities.

Since household photovoltaics are aimed at the masses, directly affecting the people's acceptance of photovoltaics and the healthy development of the entire photovoltaic industry, under the craze, "prudent promotion, standard first, safety, quality assurance" is still the mainstream voice of the industry.

At present, it is a compulsory course to improve the household photovoltaic standards as soon as possible, give full play to their leading and supporting functions, and improve the safety and reliability of household photovoltaic systems.

7 “going out” presents “ignition effect”

China's photovoltaic road to the sea presents a “ignition effect”. It has been established in more than 20 countries and regions around the world. Its products are sold to more than 180 countries. It has been finely distributed along the “Belt and Road” and won the bid for the world's largest PV power plant project... The indisputable leader in photovoltaic growth plays a key role in the global layout of clean energy.

At the same time, PV international trade barriers tend to be normalized. In order to maintain the competitiveness of photovoltaics in the energy revolution, the world's major PV market trade barriers are everywhere.

In the first half of 2017, the United States launched the 201 survey. The EU appeared “price commitment” and “floor price”. The final result of the Turkish PV anti-dumping ruling was unfavorable. The Korean polysilicon double trial was in progress and the PV export market was changing rapidly.

In 2017, the global PV market showed a decentralization trend. The market pattern of over-reliance on a single region has ceased to exist. Emerging markets have shown a trend of “distributed demand and fine development”.

Although the uncertainty of global trade in photovoltaic products has increased, it is not conducive to the overall healthy and balanced development of the entire photovoltaic industry. The unfavorable fear will form a containment for my photovoltaic industry. However, China's photovoltaic power cannot be underestimated, and the global layout is continuing to accelerate.

8Importing the green card

In February 2017, the three ministries jointly issued the “Notice on Trial Implementation of the Green Power Certificate Verification and Voluntary Subscription System for Renewable Energy”, and the voluntary green subscription policy for many years was born.

The National Green Power Certificate (referred to as the “Green Certificate”) is not a new thing and is an international practice for more than a decade. In the past few years, China’s new energy installed capacity has been crowned by the subsidy policy. However, as the subsidy funding gap increases, some renewable energy companies are on the verge of a broken capital chain.

On the one hand, the green card can supplement the source of financial subsidy funds. On the other hand, it can also work for the certification of green certificate mandatory quota transactions, transaction organization, fund supervision, etc., laying a working foundation for future renewable energy compulsory quota transactions.

As an effective means to resolve the lack of subsidies for renewable energy, the Green Card is not only a sentiment but also a heavy burden. However, the growth path of new things must be twisted and twisted. The industry believes that it is necessary to combine the green card and the non-water renewable energy compulsory quota system in 2018 according to the implementation of the Green Card in 2017 to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of both supply and demand.

The policy is good, and implementation is the key. In the process of implementing the green card, it is necessary to ensure the authenticity of information and power certification. How to generate green certificates, whether there are rewards, the cost of trading platforms, and how to prevent artificial speculation in the transaction process need to be clearly defined.

9 Global pattern transformation, giving birth to “privatization”

Throughout the 2017 China PV market, the global PV landscape has been further reshaped, and the wave of “privatization” of Chinese PV companies has come to the fore.

At the beginning of 2017, Trina Solar, the leading PV company in the limelight, announced its formal privatization, involving more than $1.1 billion in privatization transactions.

As a result, more PV leading companies followed suit: In November 2017, JA Solar announced its privatization, and in January, Artes also announced its privatization.

Behind the intensive “privatization” of Chinese PV companies, on the one hand, the US capital market is seriously underestimating the value of Chinese PV companies, while the Chinese capital market places great emphasis on PV companies.

On the other hand, it conveys the transformation of the global PV market pattern. The situation of “one big one” in the European and American markets no longer exists. The importance of the Chinese market is more prominent, and emerging markets are beginning to rise.

       Although the road to “privatization” will not be smooth, China’s photovoltaics are increasingly rampant.