January 17, 2018 Original Source: Silicon Branch

       First, the price of polysilicon is “√”

       In 2017, the average annual price of polysilicon in China was 135,000 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 5.6% year-on-year. The price of polysilicon in the whole year showed a trend of “√”. The highest and lowest points were higher than 2016. The average weekly price rose from RMB 140,000/ton at the beginning of January to RMB 142,700/ton at the end of February, an increase of 1.9%. Then the cliff fell to a mid-April low of 108,500 yuan / ton in April, a drop of 24.0%, after the bottoming rebound, all the way back to the end of December, 15.28 yuan / ton, an increase of 40.8%.

About 2018 price forecast: It is expected that there will be a wave of stocking stimulation demand before the Spring Festival, so the price of polysilicon is still supported in January and February. The policy stimulus is still unclear at the beginning of the holiday period, and the downward trend or the wait-and-see attitude will lead to shrinkage of demand. The price dropped slightly. Later, with the “630” subsidy adjustment node approaching, triggering a new wave of rushing, polysilicon prices will bottom out. In the second half of the year, there will be 100,000 tons/year of new capacity released, which will create supply pressure. However, the terminal demand will continue to be strong due to the second surge in pre-emptive shipments. Therefore, polysilicon prices will likely reappear in 2018. 2017 price trend.

Second, domestic supply is growing in sufficient volume

By the end of 2017, the number of domestic polysilicon enterprises increased from 17 at the end of 2016 to 22, with an effective capacity of 276,000 tons/year, an increase of 31.4% year-on-year, a net increase of 66,000 tons/year compared with 2016, and domestic polysilicon production capacity in 2017. An increase of 66,000 tons/year, new capacity including new enterprises to release production capacity (Eastern hope 15,000 tons / year, Jiangsu Kangbo 10,000 tons / year, Henan star 5,000 tons / year, Erdos 2400 tons / year, Ningxia Dongmeng 1000 tons /year) and existing enterprises to optimize production capacity (new energy 14,000 tons / year, Xinjiang Daquan 8000 tons / year, Sichuan Yongxiang 5000 tons / year, Luoyang Zhong silicon 3,000 tons / year, Inner Mongolia shield An 2000 tons / Year, Shaanxi Tianhong 1000 tons / year) and so on. By the end of 2017, there were 10 Chinese polysilicon enterprises with more than 10,000-ton capacity, namely Jiangsu Zhongneng (74,000 tons/year), Xinjiang Special Transformer (36,000 tons/year), and large new energy (20,000 tons/year). ), Sichuan Yongxiang (20,000 tons / year), Luoyang China Silicon (18,000 tons / year), Asian silicon industry (15,000 tons / year), Oriental Hope (15,000 tons / year), Jiangxi Saiwei (1 10,000 tons/year), Inner Mongolia Shield (10,000 tons/year), Jiangsu Kangbo (10,000 tons/year), the capacity of these 10 companies accounted for 77.4% of the total domestic production capacity, and the annual production in 2017 reached 82.6. %.

In 2017, domestic polysilicon production reached 240,000 tons, a significant increase of 23.1% year-on-year, an increase of 42.0% compared with 2015. According to the quarterly production data, the output in the first quarter was 57,500 tons, the output in the second quarter was 60,500 tons, the output in the third quarter was 60,400 tons, and the output in the fourth quarter was 61,900 tons. In the second half of the domestic major manufacturers' maintenance, the output was 3.6% higher than that of the first half of the year. On the one hand, it was related to the stimulation of terminal demand. Non-overhaul enterprises were all equipped with horsepower to supply, on the other hand, Oriental Hope, Jiangsu Kangbo, The production capacity of emerging enterprises such as Henan Star and Erdos was gradually released in the second half of the year.

According to recent statistics, according to the enterprise planning statistics, the new polysilicon production capacity will reach 157,000 tons/year in 2018, of which 119,000 tons/year will be released in the second half of the year. Therefore, the actual increase in the first half of 2018 comes from the production enterprises at the end of 2017. Capacity release, namely, 19,000 tons/year of Tianhong Ruike, 8,000 tons/year of Ordos, and 6000 tons/year of Inner Mongolia, reached production in the first half of 2018. By 2018, the monthly output is expected to be 2.2-23,000 tons. /month. According to the estimation of production and production plans of various enterprises, domestic polysilicon production in the first half of 2018 is about 140,000 tons, an increase of 18.6% year-on-year. The annual output will reach 303,000 tons, a substantial increase of 26.3%.

Third, the terminal demand broke out

At the end of the first quarter of 2017, due to the uncertainties in the PV policy, the sudden drop in PV demand led to a decline in the price of polysilicon. However, following a series of policy stimulus measures such as “630”, demand began to pick up gradually from mid-April until hot, 2017 China's PV installed capacity exceeded 50GW for the first time. Distributed installation is the biggest bright spot in China's entire PV market in 2017, with a year-on-year increase of 400%. In the second half of 2017, while major companies took turns to overhaul, the demand exploded, so the supply was slightly insufficient.

The National Development and Reform Commission released the price policy for photovoltaic power generation projects in 2018 on December 19, 2017. Relatively speaking, the stimulus for the installation of ground power stations in the first half of next year is slightly larger than the distribution, but as the cost of power stations continues to decline, the subsidies are lowered. Inevitably, and this electricity price adjustment is basically in line with expectations, coupled with the support of national financial policies, the scale of installed capacity of distributed and terrestrial power plants is limited. In addition, the subsidy standard for PV poverty alleviation projects remains unchanged. It is also an important way for the country to establish another important component of photovoltaic installation. This will undoubtedly form a stimulus for the terminal demand next year. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic PV installed capacity will experience the historical high point of 2017 in 2018. After that, the installed capacity in 2018 will be at least the same as in 2017, also about 50GW, and the optimistic forecast is 54GW.

Fourth, summary

       In 2017, the average price of polysilicon market at home and abroad was higher than that of 2016, and the overall situation showed that “end demand broke out and supply increased enough”, so the annual supply was slightly less than demand. According to the impact of polysilicon capacity release nodes and national policies on downstream PV demand in 2018, it is expected that the overall supply and demand will be basically balanced. However, from the perspective of single crystal supply and demand, the expansion rate of monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity is much higher than that of domestic single crystal. The polycrystalline capacity of the materials is increasing. Therefore, before the silicon material enterprises break through the existing technical bottlenecks, the supply and demand of domestic single crystal materials will be phased out in 2018.