April 20, 2018 Source: Economic Daily

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the World Economic Outlook update report on April 17 local time, stating that global investment and trade continued to rise. In 2017, the global economy grew by 3.8%, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than 2016 and became 2011. The fastest growing year since. The IMF believes that this round of global economic growth has a broad base, especially in Europe and Asia, with surprisingly significant growth. Compared with last October, the IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for this year and next year by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%, reflecting the continued growth of global growth. The IMF also raised China’s economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points this year. 6.6%.

According to the report, since the middle of 2016, the global economic recovery has become more extensive and stronger. This conclusion is supported by the sustained strong growth performance of the Eurozone, Japan, China and the United States. Last year, these economies grew at a rate of growth. beyond expectation. Developed economies will continue to expand at a rate that exceeds potential growth rates this year and next year, and then economic growth will slow, but growth in emerging markets and developing economies will accelerate and then stabilize. For most countries, the current favorable economic growth rate will not continue. Policymakers should seize this opportunity to consolidate growth, make economic growth more sustainable, and strengthen the government's ability to cope with the next recession.

Specifically, the economic growth of developed economies will be 2.5% and 2.2% respectively in the next two years, up by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from October last year, and the growth rate will be faster than the potential growth rate. The US economy has benefited to some extent from the temporary fiscal stimulus. Compared with last October, the IMF’s economic growth forecast for the United States this year and next year has increased from 2.3% to 2.9% and 1.9% to 2.7%, respectively. 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points; with the support of loose monetary policy, the excess capacity of the euro zone economy will shrink, and the economic growth forecast for the euro zone will increase from 1.9% to 2.4% and 1.7% to 2.0% respectively this year and next. , respectively, increased by 0.5, 0.3 percentage points; the economic growth forecast for Japan this year and next year increased from 0.7% to 1.2%, 0.8% to 0.9%, respectively, increased by 0.5, 0.1 percentage points.

The overall growth of emerging markets and developing economies is expected to increase further, with emerging economies in Asia and Europe continuing to grow strongly, and the economies of commodity-exporting countries will pick up slightly after three years of weak growth. The economic growth of emerging markets and developing economies is 4.9% and 5.1% respectively this year and next. Compared with last October, the IMF's economic growth forecast for China this year and next year increased from 6.5% to 6.6% and 6.3% to 6.4%, both of which were raised by 0.1 percentage points.

In addition to China, several other emerging markets and developing economies have performed better than they have predicted in the past two years, including Brazil, Mexico and emerging economies in Europe. Compared with last October, the IMF's economic growth forecast for Brazil this year and next year has increased from 1.5% to 2.3% and 2.0% to 2.5%, respectively, by 0.8 and 0.5 percentage points respectively; for Mexico's economic growth this year and next. The forecast is increased from 1.9% to 2.3% and 2.3% to 3.0%, respectively, up 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points respectively.

The report believes that although the risks affecting global economic growth are roughly balanced in the near future, the risks in the next few quarters will mainly be manifested in three major aspects: First, in an environment where the normalization of monetary policy has started but the financial situation is still relaxed. There may be a sharp tightening of the financial situation, which exposes the financial fragility accumulated in the past and has a negative impact on economic growth. Second, concerns about technological change and globalization are increasing, and trade imbalances are also expanding. The weakening of universal support for integration may lead countries to shift to adopting inward-looking policies that undermine trade and investment. Third, climate change, geopolitical tensions and cybersecurity loopholes pose further threats to the medium-term outlook for weak global economic growth.

    The report concludes that the current cyclical rise in the global economy provides an ideal opportunity to deepen reforms, enabling countries to advance relevant policies and reforms, maintain current recovery momentum, and increase medium-term growth rates for the benefit of all. Every country can take many steps to promote stronger, more resilient and more inclusive economic growth. In response to the challenges of world trade governance, multilateral cooperation remains crucial. Global interdependence will only continue to grow, and unless countries face this environment in a cooperative rather than conflict-oriented way, the global economy will not prosper.