May 31, 2018 Original Source: Securities Times

       Recently, SNEC's 12th (2018) International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy (Shanghai) Exhibition and Forum was held in Shanghai. Relevant industry officials from various government departments, entrepreneurs, scholars and other industry people shared their insights on the current development of the photovoltaic industry.

Wu Xinxiong, chairman of the China Energy Research Association and former director of the National Energy Administration, pointed out at this forum that improving the overall efficiency of energy is one of the most important issues at present: on the one hand, it is necessary to further study, improve the management system, and improve the market mechanism. Create a policy environment conducive to the consumption of renewable energy such as wind power, photovoltaics, and hydropower. On the other hand, we must make full use of new technologies, new products, and new models such as Internet + smart energy, smart grid, large-scale energy storage, multi-energy complementation, artificial intelligence, and Internet of Things, and strive to improve the intelligence level of energy systems.

Many PV industry insiders at the show believe that the current PV market growth tends to be stable, the new market has limited space, and overseas emerging markets are rapidly emerging. At the same time, technological advancement has made photovoltaic power generation more efficient and lower cost, and the product tends to be more single crystal. New technologies are developing simultaneously; in addition, the market as a whole tends to be cheaper, and the industry has entered a period of low profit. How to adapt to the flood of the times, in the era of low-cost Internet access, continue to promote photovoltaic new energy to become the world's first alternative energy, to ensure stable growth of enterprises, is a problem that many companies face to think.

It is understood that in this forum, when the photovoltaic power generation achieves a comprehensive parity online is still a hot topic.

The former chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society and the State Council Counselor Shi Dinghua believe that the production cost and component production cost of China's leading enterprises have dropped to 60,000 yuan per ton and 2 yuan per watt respectively. The investment cost of photovoltaic power generation system has been stable. Within 5 yuan per watt, the cost of electricity is reduced to the range of 0.5 to 0.6 yuan and there is room for further decline. For example, GCL has already reported a PV on-grid price of 0.31 yuan, which is approaching the near-fire power price of the project site. The full-scale parity of photovoltaic power generation is just around the corner.

Zhu Xiangshan, Chairman of the Global Solar Energy Council, Chairman of the GCL Group and Chairman of the Board of Directors of GCL-Poly, also predicted the realization of “comprehensive parity online.” He believes that with the technological innovation, it is believed that China’s PV industry will bid farewell after 2020. Government subsidies to fully realize the price level of photovoltaic emission.

Zhu Gongshan said that technological innovation is the fundamental driving force for promoting the transformation and upgrading of the photovoltaic industry and green development, and achieving affordable Internet access. In 2019, GCL-Polysilicon's polysilicon production capacity will reach 150,000 tons, which can meet the production requirements of 40 GW of components. In the past few years, by increasing R&D investment and accelerating technological innovation, GCL's independent innovation of composite nano-high-efficiency battery technology will be available. Through technology superposition, photoelectric conversion efficiency will be increased to over 30%, and photovoltaic power generation cost price will be realized through energy technology revolution. dramatically drop.

Zhu Gongshan pointed out that at present, China's western region is rich in energy resources and has the advantage of low-cost photovoltaic power generation. It builds large-scale clean energy and renewable energy bases in the western region, transmits through UHV technology, and combines intelligent microgrid technology and energy storage technology in the eastern region. And other applications to achieve efficient and comprehensive utilization of clean energy. It is estimated that the cost of solar energy and other clean energy in some areas will be lower than the cost of thermal power access after 2020. After 2021, the price level of photovoltaic emission will be realized nationwide.

When talking about industry changes, Lu Yonghua, chairman of the Executive Committee of the Asian Photovoltaic Industry Association, Lin Yang Energy, believes that in the future, with the promulgation of national policies and the development of energy Internet technologies, the business model of distributed photovoltaics will be more optimized and more At the same time, each enterprise is relying on its own advantages to create a new energy consumption experience around the photovoltaic energy-based energy system, and further accelerate the transformation and development of the new energy industry.

According to relevant data in 2017, the global installed capacity of new PV is about 100GW, a year-on-year increase of 43%. In 2017, China's photovoltaic power generation installed capacity was 53GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%. In 2017, China's PV new and cumulative installed capacity is the highest in the world, exceeding industry expectations.

At the time of rapid development of the industry, the difficulties faced by the industry also attracted the attention of the industry. Shi Dinghua pointed out that the continuous release of industry capacity, market supply and demand contradictions and pressures are increasing; product structure is single, technological innovation is insufficient, basic research capabilities are weak, and key equipment is dependent on imports. The phenomenon still exists; the formulation and implementation of various standards needs to be strengthened. The disorderly competition in the optoelectronic application market has not yet caused great concern. The quality of photovoltaic equipment varies from place to place, and many photovoltaic power plants fail to operate normally or face high operational and maintenance expenditures. And other issues.

In this regard, Zhu Gongshan urged the government and relevant departments to further promote the level of asset securitization in the photovoltaic industry and increase policy support in the field of energy storage. At the same time, the photovoltaic industry itself needs to accelerate independent innovation, further reduce costs and speed up the process of affordable Internet access.

When talking about overcapacity, Shuhua, chairman of GCL Integrated, said that through the automatic elimination of the industry, technological advancement will promote a new generation of technology and a new generation of production capacity to occupy market share. He suggested that PV companies should focus their funds, energy and technical capabilities to promote the healthy development of the industry.

In the view of Yang Liyou, general manager of Jinneng Clean Energy, the photovoltaic industry is a semiconductor-like industry, so it follows Moore's Law. The core of Moore's Law is the cyclical technological progress and iteration, and then promotes the cost reduction, and at the same time drives The market and the long-term rapid expansion of the industry scale.

In the eyes of more PV industry insiders, while continuously reducing costs, how to improve efficiency has become the industry development direction and discussion hotspot. Driven by the domestic leader project, the proportion of new technologies and differentiated products such as polycrystalline black silicon PERC, single crystal PERC, and N-type single crystal has increased year by year, showing the driving force of technological innovation and the vitality of industry development.