April 17, 2019 Source: China Economic Net

According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary calculations showed that the GDP in the first quarter was 1,13,433.3 billion yuan, which was 6.4% year-on-year at comparable prices, which was flat compared with the fourth quarter of last year and 0.4% lower than the same period of the previous year and the whole year. 0.2 percentage points. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 876.9 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year; the added value of the secondary industry was 82346 billion yuan, up 6.1%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 122.17 billion yuan, up 7.0%.

First, agricultural production is basically stable, and the planting structure is continuously optimized.

In the first quarter, the added value of agriculture (planting) increased by 4.4% year-on-year. Egg production increased by 2.3% and milk production increased by 2.0%. The output of pig, beef, sheep and poultry meat was 22.52 million tons, down 2.8% year-on-year; among them, pork production was 14.63 million tons, down 5.2%; beef, lamb and poultry production increased by 1.7%, 1.4% and 2.1% respectively. In March, the climatic conditions of the major agricultural areas in the country were generally favorable. Most of the rural areas had suitable sunshine and sensation, and the light and heat conditions were generally good. The intended planting area of soybeans increased by 16.4% year-on-year, and the area of high-quality mid-season rice and one-season late rice planting increased by 1.9%.

Second, industrial production has accelerated, and the proportion of high-tech industries has increased.

In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year. The growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than that in January and February, 0.8 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year and 0.3 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. In terms of economic types, the value-added of state-owned holding companies increased by 4.5%, joint-stock enterprises increased by 7.8%, and foreign-invested enterprises of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 1.4%. In terms of three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 2.2% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 7.1%. The added value of industrial high-tech industries increased by 7.8% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the above-scale industries, accounting for 13.5% of all industries above designated size, up 0.8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The added value of industrial strategic emerging industries increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than the above-scale industries. New products grew rapidly. In the first quarter, the output of mobile communication base station equipment, urban rail vehicles, new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 153.7%, 54.1%, 48.2% and 18.2% respectively. In March, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.5% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points faster than that of January and February, and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter.

In January-February, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 708 billion yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year. After eliminating the Spring Festival factor, they fell slightly from the same period of last year. The operating profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.79%. According to preliminary statistics, the profitability of industrial enterprises in March has improved.

Third, the service industry grew rapidly, and the growth rate of major industries rebounded.

In the first quarter, the development of the tertiary industry was stable. Among them, the added value of leasing and business services increased by 8.3% year-on-year, the financial industry increased by 7.0%, the accommodation and catering industry increased by 6.0%, and the wholesale and retail industry increased by 5.8%. The growth rate was higher than that of the fourth quarter of last year. The information transmission, software and information technology services industries maintained rapid growth, up 21.2% year-on-year.

In the first quarter, the national service industry production index increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in January and February, and 0.2 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. In March, the national service industry production index increased by 7.6% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of January-February. In the first two months of this year, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from the previous year.

Fourth, the growth rate of market sales increased, and the proportion of online retail sales increased.

In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 977.90 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in January and February, and 1.5 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. According to the location of the business unit, the retail sales of urban consumer goods was 8.3402 billion yuan, up 8.2%; the retail sales of rural consumer goods was 1,438.8 billion yuan, up 9.2%. According to the type of consumption, the catering revenue was 1064.4 billion yuan, up 9.6%; the retail sales of goods was 8.7146 billion yuan, up 8.2%. The sales of consumption upgraded goods grew rapidly. The cosmetics and communication equipments above designated size increased by 10.9% and 10.0% respectively, and the growth rate was faster than the total retail sales of consumer goods by 2.6 and 1.7 percentage points respectively. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.7% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than that of January and February, and increased by 0.91% from the previous month.

In the first quarter, the national online retail sales amounted to 2,237.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the first two months. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 1,777.2 billion yuan, up 21.0%, accounting for 18.2% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, up 1.7 percentage points from January to February.

V. Investment has steadily rebounded, and investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly.

In the first quarter, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 1,108.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in January and February, down 1.2 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. Among them, private investment was 6,199.2 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4%. In terms of industries, investment in the primary industry increased by 3.0%; investment in the secondary industry increased by 4.2%, of which manufacturing investment increased by 4.6%; investment in the tertiary industry increased by 7.5%, of which infrastructure investment increased by 4.4%. Investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 11.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 5.1 percentage points faster than total investment; investment in high-tech service industry increased by 19.3% year-on-year, 13.0 percentage points faster than total investment. From a ring comparison, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 0.45% in March from the previous month.

In the first quarter, the national real estate development investment was 2,380.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in January and February, and 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The sales area of commercial housing in the country was 298.29 million square meters, down 0.9% year-on-year. The decline was 2.7 percentage points lower than that in January-February; the sales of commercial housing in the country was 270.39 billion yuan, up 5.6%, and the growth rate was 2.8 percentage points faster than that in January-February.

6. The growth of total import and export volume is accelerated, and the trade structure is continuously optimized.

In the first quarter, the total import and export of goods was 705.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and the growth rate was 3.0 percentage points higher than that in January and February. Among them, exports were 3.7674 billion yuan, up 6.7%; imports were 327.77 billion yuan, up 0.3%. The import and export offset, with a surplus of 529.7 billion yuan, an increase of 75.2% over the same period of the previous year. The structure of trade pattern was further optimized. The import and export of general trade increased by 6.0%, accounting for 59.6% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.4%, accounting for 58.8% of the total export value. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 9.9%, accounting for 40.6% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. In March, the total volume of imports and exports was 246.26 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, 8.9 percentage points faster than that in January-February. Among them, exports were 134.19 billion yuan, up 21.3%; imports were 112.07 billion yuan, down 1.8%.

In the first quarter, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2,766.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In March, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,022.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%.

7. Consumer prices rose moderately, and industrial producer prices rose slightly.

In the first quarter, the national consumer price rose by 1.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first two months of the year, and a drop of 0.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the city rose 1.9%, and the rural rose 1.8%. In terms of categories, food and tobacco prices rose by 2.2% year-on-year, clothing rose by 1.8%, housing rose by 2.1%, household goods and services rose by 1.3%, transportation and communications fell by 0.8%, education, culture and entertainment rose by 2.6%, and health care rose by 2.7. %, other supplies and services rose 2.1%. In the price of food, tobacco and alcohol, the price of food rose by 0.5%, the price of pork fell by 1.2%, and the price of fresh vegetables rose by 6.9%. In March, the national consumer price rose by 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month; a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month.

In the first quarter, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 0.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the first two months of the year, and a drop of 3.5 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. In March, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 0.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month and a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first quarter, the purchase price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in March, which was flat.

8. The unemployment rate of urban surveys in the country has declined, and the rural labor force who goes out to work continues to increase.

In the first quarter, there were 3.24 million new employees in cities and towns across the country. In March, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the unemployment rate of the 25-59 year old population survey was 4.8%, which was lower than the national urban survey unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. The unemployment rate surveyed in 31 major cities and towns was 5.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the average weekly working hours of corporate employment in the country was 46.0 hours, an increase of 1.1 hours from the previous month. At the end of March, the total number of rural laborers who went out to work was 176.51 million, an increase of 2.1 million over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 1.2%. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year.

9. Residents’ income has grown steadily, and rural residents’ income has grown faster than towns.

In the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 8,493 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.7% year-on-year. The actual increase of the price factor was 6.8%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. According to the permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 11,633 yuan, an increase of 5.9%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 4,600 yuan, an actual increase of 6.9%. The per capita disposable income ratio of urban and rural residents was 2.53, a decrease of 0.02 over the same period of the previous year. The median per capita disposable income of the national residents was 7,158 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.8% year-on-year.

X. Economic structure adjustment and optimization, transformation and upgrading have achieved remarkable results

The structural reform of the supply side has been further advanced. In the first quarter, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was 75.9%, which was the second highest point since 2013 compared with the same period in history. At the end of March, the national commercial housing sales area was 516.46 million square meters, a decrease of 6.05 million square meters from the end of last month, down 9.9% from the same period of the previous year. At the end of February, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.9%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. In the first quarter, investment in ecological protection and environmental management and railway transportation industry increased by 43.0% and 11.0% respectively, which was faster than the total investment of 36.7 and 4.7 percentage points respectively.

The three major battles have been solidly advanced. At the end of February, the national local government debt balance was 191.42 billion yuan, which was controlled within the limits approved by the National People's Congress. Poverty alleviation has been effectively promoted, and the per capita disposable income of rural residents in poverty-stricken areas has increased rapidly. The effectiveness of pollution prevention and control continued to show, and the proportion of clean energy consumption increased. According to preliminary calculations, in the first quarter, the proportion of clean energy consumption such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 2.7%.

The economic structure continues to be optimized. In the first quarter, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 57.3% of GDP, up 0.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year and 18.7 percentage points higher than the secondary industry; the contribution of tertiary industry growth to GDP growth 61.3%, 24.4 percentage points higher than the secondary industry. The contribution of final consumption expenditure growth to economic growth was 65.1%, and consumption continued to be the dominant force in demand. Among the final consumption expenditures of all residents, service consumption accounted for 47.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The four major sectors of the East, Central, West and Northeast are benign interactions. The coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has made new progress. The Yangtze River Economic Belt has been implemented with great protection actions. The Yangtze River Delta integration has been steadily advanced. The Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Dawan District Development Plan has been released. Hainan Freedom The trade zone is built in an orderly manner, and the spatial development pattern is more optimized and expanded.

XI. Market expectations have improved significantly and development confidence has increased

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) returned to the expansion range. In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. After three consecutive months, it was lower than the critical point and then returned to the expansion range. The five sub-indices all rebounded, and the production index and new order index rebounded respectively. 3.2 and 1.0 percentage points. The expected index of production and operation activities of enterprises was 56.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing business activity index continues to be in the boom zone. In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The service industry business activity index was 53.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The service industry new order index was in the expansion range for three consecutive months. The construction industry business activity index is 61.7%, which is located in the high-level boom zone. The overall PMI output index has rebounded significantly. In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.0%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall expansion of production and operation activities of enterprises accelerated. The consumer confidence index for the first quarter was 124.6, an increase of 3.2 points from the fourth quarter of the previous year.

In general, the national economy continued to operate in a reasonable range in the first quarter, continuing the overall stable, steady and progressive development trend, and the positive factors gradually increased, laying a good foundation for the stable and healthy development of the economy throughout the year. However, we must also see that global economic growth and international trade have slowed down, and there are many external uncertainties. The domestic structural contradictions are still quite prominent. The task of reform and development is arduous, and economic downward pressure still exists. In the next stage, we should take Xi Jinping's new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics as the guide, conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the decision-making and deployment of government work reports, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, and adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line. Continue to lay down three major battles, coordinate and promote steady growth, promote reform, adjust structure, benefit the people's livelihood, prevent risks, and ensure stability, fully mobilize the polarity of all parties, pay close attention to the implementation of various policies, and keep the economic operation reasonable. Interval, solidly promote the economy towards high quality development.