October 24, 2019 Source: Solar Photovoltaic Network

"Integration may be a very important trend of the photovoltaic industry this year, and will continue until next year, the situation changes, let us integrate and reorganize for many years, it is likely that there will be a big change in the last one or two years, and there will be three main Performance: First, the head enterprises are accelerating their expansion; secondly, the backward enterprises are experiencing rapid expansion; third, the superior state-owned enterprises are entering quickly."

——Wang Bohua, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association

In 2019, the photovoltaic industry has been inherited for a long time. After the price is online, PV will generate unlimited vitality and vitality, and the new era of photovoltaics is about to open.

Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, gave a speech on China's PV development situation and prospects in 2019. The following is a speech:

Dear friends, good afternoon everyone!

Before introducing the current situation, I would like to use a picture to make a very simple summary of the development of China's PV industry.

As we all know, the industrialization of China's photovoltaic industry has only begun in this century. In other words, it is less than 20 years in a decade. In such a short period of time, we have successfully built a world-class industry. This is Very rare, I may be ignorant, have not seen another such industry, so fast, so short time to develop into such a situation, we are now in terms of industry scale, technology level, enterprise strength, industry layout, society In terms of economic benefits, they are all world class. I have it all here, everyone can see it, I will not read it one by one, including the status of our world, which is the first, our new installed capacity is the first in six consecutive years, our cumulative installed capacity for four consecutive years in the world. the first.

In addition to this, we have two more worth mentioning: First, China now has the best policy development environment in the world, which is the policy environment for PV development. We have the world's most complementary and most complete industrial policy. In the past, when we all started, we accepted it in 2013 and 2014. It may not be very accustomed. I told the year that this year is the policy year. I didn’t expect the second year policy. Many, in the third year, there are many, and now there are many policies every year. It is not a policy year. Every month, I have to look at several policies and continue to study, so the policy is very perfect. Second, our industry chain is the most complete supporting world. So in this sense, which country is difficult to surpass China's photovoltaic industry, unless it moves the industry chain, but each country does not have such a large PV market in China, so it is difficult to change, we have formed Such a world-class industry. For more than a year, we have commemorated stamps twice, one is the 19th commemorative stamp, and the other is the 70th anniversary commemorative stamp. There are 41 industrial categories, hundreds of categories, to PV. Level, too sorting should be the fifth level, hundreds of billions, so twice on the commemorative stamp, it is very rare. It should be said that China's photovoltaic industry has achieved very brilliant results in less than 20 years in the past decade.

First of all, the manufacturing side of several links. Production of polysilicon. In the first eight months, the output of polysilicon was 214,000 tons, which has reached 82% of the annual output of last year. The growth is still relatively fast. The achievement of such a high growth rate is achieved when our market decline exceeds 50%. So it is not easy. The spread between polysilicon materials and monocrystalline silicon materials has expanded to a considerable extent. I don't think it is necessary to elaborate on the impact of supply and demand. The market is pulling and moving in the direction of single crystal.

Wafer, this is our situation in the first half of the year, the growth rate reached 26%, probably according to the statistics of the first half of the year, our polysilicon is about 8 o'clock growth rate, but the silicon wafer 26%, not the highest, but the growth than the silicon material To be much higher, the price is relatively flat. The characteristics of silicon wafers, the proportion of single crystals is increasing rapidly and rapidly, and now it is about 70%. It is known that polycrystals accounted for the majority last year, and now single crystals account for 70% in the past 8 months. It is destined to develop and develop to a certain extent, mainly depending on the size of market demand, and we are also waiting to see. Another feature, large size, and increased concentration, this link should be one of our most concentrated links. The international market share is also the highest. Last year's share, global production, we accounted for 93.1%. This is our highest link.

The growth rate of battery chips and battery chips is the highest among the four links, 30.8%. One is driven by foreign markets. It should be said that the foreign market is double-driven. In addition to our general concept of foreign markets, there are some that we build. In foreign component factories, we are now producing production capacity overseas, and the capacity of component factories is much larger than that of battery factories, so many of us have to export to overseas production bases.

The characteristics and development characteristics of our industry in the battery are constantly improving. The output of the top ten enterprises has exceeded 2GW, and the lowest of the top ten is more than 2GW. I made a bracket here. In 2018, we The country is only 2.5GW for the whole year, so now a company is more than 2GW, and the development is very fast. The characteristics of this field, the professional battery chip manufacturers are rapidly emerging, we all know that photovoltaic is a pan-semiconductor industry, the whole is semiconductor technology, the semiconductor industry is very obvious to the specialized division of the integrated circuit industry, and is dozens The year is unchanged, I have been doing chips in the front process chip, doing CPU CPU, packaging is packaging, design is design, has been very regular. I feel that the photovoltaic industry, as a pan-semiconductor industry, will follow the laws of semiconductors in the future and will continue to develop in the future. At present, because vertical integration still has its benefits, it is still more vertically integrated. But in this segment of the battery, some companies are emerging.

In terms of price, it is quite obvious. It is different from the trend of silicon and silicon wafers. Especially after June, the price difference has rapidly narrowed. On one aspect, it has a relationship with the rapid release of single crystal PERC capacity. The difference.

This is also the case with the rules of the components and the battery, which is the growth of production in the first half of the year. In the past 8 months, we have produced 63 GW, which is about 3/4 of that of the whole year. It is also better at the manufacturing end. P This picture shows the utilization rate of component links in the one-and-a-half year period from last year to the year and a half.

Everyone has two characteristics, the first one, because my three curves are different in color according to the size of the production capacity. The blue color is the most productive enterprise. The enterprises with an annual production capacity of more than 2GW have counted 10, with red in the middle. The production capacity is in the middle, and the yellow and green colors below are relatively small. The scale effect is very obvious. The enterprises with large capacity have developed relatively smoothly in the past year, and basically the capacity utilization rate is above 70%. It is a very reasonable range, especially green, with the smallest capacity, most of the year. Under the capacity utilization rate of less than 50%, everyone is engaged in the enterprise can imagine, such capacity utilization rate can not last long, if it has been going on, it must be withdrawn.

Another feature is that the photovoltaic industry is still a policy-oriented market. His capacity utilization rate and policies are directly linked. After the "531" last year, all of them were declining. Some of them may be commissioned. Now they are back and enriched. Its production capacity may be better. The small business is in trouble, and it has dropped a lot.

Another curve, since the 594 and 49 documents came out, the green small-capacity enterprises have some rises. We may analyze two reasons. One is that after the parity policy comes out, the parity drives a certain polycrystalline market, small enterprises. The production capacity has been utilized. After the 49th document, we are in the household market. Everyone knows that the installed capacity of household use is more than polycrystalline. The household use cannot be said to be negligible in the previous year and the previous year. The proportion is very small. This year we installed the GW, household use. The installed capacity of 4 GWs is quite large.

In the case of import and export, we got the news that by September, our export value has exceeded $16.3 billion, more than last year's full year, last year was $16.1 billion. There is no doubt that this year is the first time in our history. In the three major years, we had 10.2 billion US dollars in 2010 and 211 US dollars in 2011. Of course, the price was expensive at that time. In fact, our total output in 2010 was only 8.7 GW. In 2011, our output was only 21 GW, and all exports were only 10 GW. There are 21.1 billion US dollars in exports, because the components inside the export are big heads. This year, we are still able to reach $16.3 billion in the first nine months with such a rapid decline in prices. It is very likely that we will have to hit 20 billion in the whole year. The US dollar, the number of exports we have so far has exceeded 53GW, we just broke 30GW in the previous year, last year broke through 40GW for the first time, about 41GW, broke through 50GW this year, has broken through, and rushed to 60GW, so this export speed It is very fast.

This is the big component of export. Its trend is diversification, and it is changing every year. Everyone looks at India, and 18 becomes 7.6. This is the situation in the first 8 months. The export of our components is growing rapidly, we export. The amount of more than 100 million US dollars was 16 last year. In the first 8 months of this year, it exceeded 21, and the export volume exceeded 1GW. Six years before last year, it exceeded 12 in the first eight months of this year. In turn, now we The big US in the export market has been engaged in two double-reverses with us, and we have engaged in 301 and 201. Now the Sino-US trade war is 250 billion yuan or 300 billion yuan. Now the relevant departments ask us how much PV production is. Our influence is negligible. why? Now from January to August, exports to the United States account for only 0.1% of our exports. In 2014, it exceeded $2 billion, and now only accounts for 0.1% of us, so this effect is further declining.

In terms of market, we first look at the world. One of the characteristics of the global market developed this year is that emerging markets are rising rapidly. Vietnam, no one wants to install more than 4 GW a year. Ukraine has also grown very fast, and it has reached the whole year in half a year. 90%, the development is also very fast, I have this picture on the right, except for the last one, close to a little bit, basically all GW-level market, emerging markets develop faster.

Back in China, China’s market in the first half of the year was clear, and it fell sharply, with a drop of more than 50%. Recently, it may have a higher proportion. In short, the market situation in China is not very good, but there are bright spots, where is the highlight? It is just the household PV, which was originally planned to be 3.5GW. Now it is 4.2GW in 9 months. It is estimated that this year, it is until the end of October, and it will definitely exceed 5GW by the end of October. Let's look at the picture on the left. The highest column is our 2019, which is the whole installation situation of the previous household. The latter is a month and a month. The picture on the right has not yet been settled. It is estimated that it is probably larger than the number in September. This is entirely possible.

On the right, the concentration is relatively high. The map on the right side of the household PV market mainly reflects this situation. Shandong, Hebei, and Henan have already exceeded 60% of the installed capacity of households. This concentration is very high.

In terms of technology, I originally talked about less, because in this respect, we mainly mention industrialization. In terms of quantity and scale, our technological innovation has also kept up. Technology conversion efficiency Above everyone generally look at this picture, we have already petitioned 14 times, and most of these 14 times, my statistics 9-10 are after 2018, that is the last year to win time, our Technological innovation is very active, and we still maintain three. In terms of cell, single crystal PERC, polycrystalline, TOPCon, IBC, heterojunction, etc., from 2019 to now more than 9 months, refreshed 7 records, the direction of single crystal Development, now there are not only 166,210 but also this series of products, where to develop in the future, I believe that this development is more chaotic, I hope we can coordinate your position and unify our development path in the future, we are also studying this matter.

In other respects, film and other technologies are also developing very fast. Hana's MiaSole has created a record. In addition to this, Hangzhou's fiber nano-synthesis has been continuously broken in the perovskite in the past two years, in addition to the highest efficiency of small size. In addition, in terms of modules, large-scale production and large size are also breaking the world record. In the picture of the components, we also have a record of 11.98 in the shadow of our fiber.

Costs and prices are steadily declining. This is the latest, this is the report of the International Renewable Energy Agency this month, which analyzes the cost of electricity for renewable energy technologies in the world in 2010 and 2018. Is the median, not the average. As you can see, in the past 8 years, the LCOE of global photovoltaic projects has dropped from 3 to 7 in 2020 to 8.5 cents in 2018, a drop of more than 75%, reaching 77%. The bid price in the world has dropped rapidly. In fact, everyone knows that everyone looks at one point a year, and the figure on the left, the latter two figures are all happening this year, indicating that this year's speed is accelerating. On the right is the lowest bid price in each region, the lowest is already very low, so the winning bid price is falling rapidly.

The same is true for China. Whether it is our front-runner project or UHV project, our bidding price is further declining. We are also driving the subsidy strength to drop rapidly. The average subsidy per kilowatt-hour is already more than 6 points. The actual preparation is also completed. More than 22 GWs, the actual preparation of 2.25 billion yuan actually only used 17 billion yuan, compared with the past to save state subsidies of more than 2 billion yuan per year, indicating that the economic competitiveness of photovoltaics is rapidly increasing.

First of all, let's take a look at the prospects. This is a statistical analysis by the US analysts of some of the world's most important analysts in this area. They conclude that the agencies will predict by 2040. The share of renewable energy generation will reach 15%-61% from 7% in 2015, the most pessimistic is 15%, and the optimistic is more than 60%. Most pessimistic, if we take a common review method, remove the highest score and remove the lowest score, on average, far higher than 20%. By 2040, the most pessimistic forecast for PV's annual power generation is 4%, accounting for 4% of total power generation, optimistically reaching 25%, at least 1400TWh, and high 12400TWh, which is very optimistic.

The International Energy Agency predicts that global renewable energy will increase by 50% in the past five years, 1200 GW, of which 60% of the 50%, or 720 GW, is completed by photovoltaics, and the forecast for distributed PV is relatively high. The yellow part of the photovoltaic can reach 320 GW. Costs and prices continue to fall, Wood McKenzie's prediction, the value should be pulled down in proportion to the ratio should be similar. His predictions will continue to decline, and it is still in a relatively rapid decline. It is predicted that the current PVOE average value is already lower than the domestic cost. His prediction will achieve the competition of coal power cost by 2026.