October 16, 2019 Source: People's Network

On October 15, the national CPI (Resident Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Ex-factory Price Index) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the CPI rose by 3.0% in September, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. In the past six years, the PPI has dropped by 1.2% year-on-year, and the decline has increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

Why does the CPI increase continue to expand? The year-on-year increase in CPI has increased, while the PPI has expanded. How do you view the trend deviation? The reporter interviewed relevant departments and experts.

Why does the CPI increase continue to expand?

In September, CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year. Among them, food prices rose by 11.2%, and the increase was 1.2 percentage points, affecting CPI by about 2.21 percentage points.

The rise in food prices has become the main reason for the expansion of CPI. Among the food, pork prices rose by 69.3% year-on-year, and the increase was 22.6 percentage points, affecting CPI by about 1.65 percentage points. The price of beef, mutton, chicken, duck and eggs rose by 9.4% to 18.8%; the price of fresh fruit rose by 7.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 16.3 percentage points. The above six factors affect the CPI increase by about 0.49 percentage points.

According to Guo Liyan, a researcher at the China National Institute of Macroeconomics, the structural characteristics of the current CPI operation are obvious. “Pork price contributed more than half of the increase in CPI. Excluding the impact of pork prices, CPI also rose by about 1.4%. Coupled with the spillover effect of rising pork prices, the price of meat protein products with alternative properties also rose in different degrees. ”

“Not all food prices have risen rapidly,” said Yang Guangpu, an associate researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. In September, the price of fresh vegetables fell by 11.8%, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.33 percentage points.

Will food prices continue to rise?

So will food prices continue to rise?

Guo Liyan analyzed that in addition to the increase in the price of meat and protein, the prices of fresh fruits in fresh vegetables have all declined in the quarter, and the prices of non-foods such as service and residence have remained stable or stabilized. The core CPI for food and energy elimination is 1.5%. Prices are basically stable. "Looking at the end of the year, it is not excluded that the CPI monthly growth rate exceeds 3% or continues to fluctuate around 3%."

Yang Guangpu also said that considering a series of policies to increase pork production and supply, and pork imports are expected to expand, pork price increases are expected to fall month by month. There is not much room for food prices to continue to rise, and the possibility of further expansion is relatively small.

Zhang Bin, director of the Global Macroeconomic Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the current market supply and demand relationship is relatively stable, the supply of industrial and agricultural products and services is generally sufficient, and the wide-ranging price increase does not have a basis to achieve a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of around 3%. The expected goal has a solid foundation.

Since the second quarter of this year, the price of food in many places has risen markedly, and the feelings of ordinary people are the most direct. The National Development and Reform Commission has quickly deployed arrangements. Since the beginning of the year, 30 provinces and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have temporarily distributed a total subsidy of 5.51 billion yuan, benefiting 222 million people in difficulty, which has largely alleviated the rise in food prices for the people in need. The impact of life.

How do you view the deviation between CPI and PPI?

The same concerns as CPI, as well as this month's PPI. In September, the PPI fell by 1.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

Guo Liyan analyzed that there are two reasons for the decrease in PPI: First, the negative tail is slightly expanded compared with last month, and second, the decline in the crude oil and petrochemical industry chain and some products in the black industry chain has increased or the decline has risen, resulting in the new price increase continuing to be negative.

The CPI increase continues to expand, while the PPI decline is also expanding. Can China's economic operation continue to improve? Experts unanimously stated that the basis for maintaining a stable overall price level is relatively solid, and the Chinese economy has the ability to maintain a stable operation.

First of all, this round of CPI rise has a strong structural characteristics.

Since the beginning of this year, the core CPI after the elimination of food and energy has continued to rise below 2%, and the increase has not increased significantly. At present, China's manufacturing and service industries are adequately supplied, and they do not have the basis for the general price increase of various commodities.

"At present, the main factor of CPI is that the price of meat such as pork is structurally rising. This is the characteristic of this round of CPI fluctuations. It is obviously different from the inflation upside caused by factors such as the previous rounds of monetary expansion." Guo Liyan said that The total supply and demand of the economy is basically balanced, and the supply of agricultural and sideline products and industrial products is also relatively adequate.

Secondly, although the PPI has increased year-on-year, the growth rate of the chain has turned from negative to positive and is expected to continue.

Guo Liyan analyzed that the PPI rose by 0.1% in September, and the positive trend occurred. The price decline of production materials has narrowed, and the price of living materials has risen slightly. It is expected that although the PPI may be in the negative growth range in the next few months, the decline is limited and it is impossible to continue deep. fall.

Yang Guangpu also pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of consumption, investment and exports has declined compared with last year, and the policy effect of large tax reduction and fee reduction has been transmitted to product prices. PPI has certain downward pressure, and the growth rate of the chain is basically Maintain a narrow range of fluctuations around 0. Taking into account the low base in the fourth quarter of last year, the PPI is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter of this year, and the year-on-year decline will also narrow.

In addition, the decline in the price of industrial products to the consumer goods usually has a lag, which is also an important reason for the recent deviation between the CPI trend and the PPI trend.

Yang Guangpu said that China's current economic operation is still facing downward pressure. In the short term, there is no basis for a sharp rise in prices. At the same time, the macro-policy effects of counter-cyclical adjustment are emerging. Various positive factors will hedge the downward pressure on the economy, and the risks in economic operations are also In relief. "Overall, maintaining a stable operation of the Chinese economy is fundamental, conditional, and capable."